Me (Joanna): I can’t predict the future, but I think Facebook and YouTube will stick around for a while.  Not sure about the smaller networks, especially those without solid revenue models.
Participant: But I’ve heard that the younger audiences are leaving Facebook now that their parents are signing up.
Me: Yes, I’ve read that as well, but Facebook has really tipped in terms of popularity, all the research shows that the older audiences don’t leave a social network once their friends have joined and they’ve made a commitment to the site, and Facebook as a platform for all kinds of third-party applications is really compelling.

But then I got to thinking.  Does it really matter if Facebook survives?  Does it really matter which of the social networks survives?

If you’re hesitating about investing in a social media strategy because you’re wondering which of the platforms will survive, I think you’re worried about the wrong issue.  Here’s why:

• Social media isn’t just a fad. Social networks have fundamentally changed how we communicate, connect and market.  Social networks have “tipped;” there is now a critical mass of people on social networks.  You can’t ignore the numbers.
• In the end, it doesn’t matter which social network survives because there are now so many mainstream and niche social networks, it’s almost pointless to worry about which ones will make it.  Remember when we thought no other search engine could threaten Yahoo!’s primacy?
• Your social media strategy probably needs to include having a presence on multiple networks, depending on where your target audiences are AND to ensure good coverage and reach for your marketing messages.

Here’s what I think IS important:

• Your organization needs to develop a core competency in using social networks to reach your current and new audiences.
• Your organization must be nimble enough to sniff out opportunities represented by upcoming sites and networks.
• Your usage reports should tell you which sites and networks are up and coming and worth investing in.
• Your communication team needs to be quick to understand the capabilities of new social networks and adapt your message and strategy to each site.

Once and when you DO develop this core competency, it won’t matter IF Facebook will survive.  The question will become: What’s next?

What do you think?  How is your organization developing competency in using social media to meet your goals?  What up and coming social media sites are you exploring?

That’s when I realized that I nearly never watch TV shows during regular broadcast hours.  Instead, I rely on recordings and purchases to watch shows I’m interested in, when I want them.  And since the networks now stream shows on their Web sites and Hulu, who needs to be a slave to the TV schedule anymore?

In a report titled “Television, Internet and Mobile Usage in the US,” Nielsen calls this phenomenon “timeshifted TV” because viewers are watching shows on their own schedule.

Who’s been hurt by this phenomenon?

• The networks that rely on advertising since so many of us fast forward through commercials or purchase commercial-free shows.
• Providers of schedules, like TV Guide and the newspapers, since we use our devices to view or purchase what we need on demand.

Who’s benefiting?

• Companies that allow us consumers to watch shows on demand, like Netflix, iTunes, Comcast, Verizon, etc.
• Companies that can develop non-traditional advertising and PR campaigns and don’t just depend on viewers watching shows and sitting through commercials.

How about you?  What are your viewing habits?  What other disruptive technologies and trends are helping us say bye-bye to traditional forms of leisure?

• The Pew Research Center has some of the best research about all kinds of trends shaping the US.  The Pew Internet and American Life Project has great information about technology adoption, Web 2.0, social media and the technology divide.
• Ad Age is one of my favorite sites.  The daily e-mail newsletter is one that I read nearly every day.  This article on Where Digital Marketing is Heading in 2010 is a must read.
• When I’m looking for numbers and visitors demographics for a particular Web site, I go to Quantcast.  For example, Quantcast estimates there are 23.3M Twitter users, of which 53% are female, 44% are between the ages of 18-34, and 75% are Caucasian.  The data can be a stale by a few months, which is a problem for fast-growing sites, but the data is usually pretty solid.
• Although I live in the DC area, I’m a huge New York Times fan.  Check out the 9th Annual Year in Ideas (the best!) and an awesome infographic that shows search terms related to cooking and Thanksgiving, by region of the country.
• TrendWatching.com puts out a monthly briefing on trends related to consumer behavior, marketing and advertising.  Although I’m underwhelmed by their 10 Crucial Consumer Trends for 2010, the site generally has good onsight into what’s hot or will be hot.
• Ars Technica is one of the best tech news sites/blogs on the Web.  Check out this August 2009 article that showed Microsoft’s Internet Explorer now has a less than 67% market share.
• We often think of Nielsen when it comes to TV ratings, but the company has amazing research about consumers, technology, marketing and advertising.  A study back in March of 2009 reported that social networks and blogs are now the 4th most popular online activity, ahead of personal e-mail.
• If you love data visualizations, you’ll love Flowing Data.  I love the perspective you get when you plot data points on a map; the insight grows when you are able to see data change over time, or across geographic boundaries.  I love this data visualization of the State of the World.
• Google Trends shows you the top search terms in the Google search engine and lets you compare the world’s interest in topics of your choice.   Google even maps flu trends based on people googling for search terms related to the flu.

These are just some of my favorite trends/statistics Web sites.  If you’re interested in seeing what else is on my bookmark list, check out my account on Delicious.

How about you?  What sites do you rely on to know what’s hot, what’s in, what’s not, and in what direction the winds of change are blowing?